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The two charts below draw this phenomenon quite nicely.
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The leader or, in this case, the biggest loser is years ending in three. As to the biggest winner, well, that honour goes to years ending in five with a record of sixteen up years vs. Years ending in seven are the leader in one category. Years ending in seven have also been, overwhelmingly, associated with stock market panics and crashes. It centered mainly in Great Britain and was associated with the end of the 1840s railway boom. Businesses failed, banks collapsed, railways declined, thousands lost their jobs.
Note the following: A financial crisis, major recession/depression deflation, bank collapses, high unemployment. It was also triggered by a change in banking that required banks to shore up their reserves with gold and silver. The collapse was triggered after the sinking of the SS Central America that was carrying an important shipment of gold needed to shore up currencies. Many state and local banks and businesses went bust.
Remember, seasonality is an observation over a long period and there are years where it might not work.
But when the seasonality is applied to years ending in seven, things have a tendency to get "nasty" following the July/August top.
While gold's free trading history commenced only in the 1970s, it is interesting to note that of thirteen times gold saw gains of 20% or more in a year, three of them occurred in years ending in seven—1977, 1987, and 2007. Given the years ending in seven and their propensity for panics and crises, it might not be a surprise that seasonality also plays a role.
And while gold has had only four years where it lost more than 20%, one of them naturally occurred in a year ending in seven—1997. According to research carried out by Don Vialoux and Jon Vialoux of Equity Clock and Timing the Market markets' ten-year cycle seasonality for years ending in seven is quite negative.But there is strong tendency for the markets to react negatively in years ending in seven.Given our history of panics, crashes, and financial crisis in years ending in seven the seasonality of years ending in seven does not seem to be much of a surprise. But if the tale of the tape is correct, expect a market sell-off that could take us into October/November before we find a low. If our wave count is correct, this should only be a minor wave 4 up from the February 2016 low.Since 1830, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) has recorded nine up years and nine down years ending in seven.Years ending in seven have the second worst year record for the DJI. 1857 saw the DJI lose 31%, in 1907 the DJI was down 37.7%, in 1917 the DJI dropped 21.7%, and finally in 1937 the DJI fell 32.8%.The panic was triggered by a collapse of speculative lending, the bursting of a land bubble, and a collapse in cotton prices. A major trust company collapsed which triggered a series of bankruptcies. The Panic of 1907 was also known as the Banker's Panic or the Knickerbocker Crisis. It was started by a failed attempt to corner the market by the United Copper Company. Morgan who led bankers to shore up the financial system.